• Current Conditions

  • Current Conditions

    Current Conditions

    The stock market is still very overvalued. Investors should expect very low returns over the next 5-10 years.

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    One of the major investment firms that does outstanding valuation work is Grantham Mayo (GMO). Below are their latest forecasts of seven-year returns for various asset classes.


    Investor sentiment is highly bullish, but might have rolled over.


    The stock market’s momentum may have rolled over.

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    The economy is likely to continue its slow growth.



    The expected return from bonds is low, but better than for stocks.

    Exp Bond Ret

    As investors “reach” for income in their portfolios, they have been taking on increasing risk, as evidenced by the low yields and spreads in junk corporate bonds.

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  • More from Current Conditions
  • Recent Articles

  • The “New-look” Bears Eat Bulls

    After receiving some comments about my decision to shut down Bears Eat Bulls, I have decided to keep it going, but only to give readers a few of the charts that I watch most closely in evaluating the state of the financial markets. Clicking on “Current Conditions” in the upper portion of the website will get you to these charts. I plan to keep these few charts fairly up-to-date. When there is something important to say about any of these charts, I will imbed a comment.


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  • Everything Has Its Time

     For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven- Ecclesiastes 3:1

    About three and one-half years ago, I began posting on BearsEatBull.com. In doing so,  I had three primary goals:

    1. To give my children some investment knowledge and wisdom,
    2. To force myself to into a discipline that would keep me abreast with markets and the economy, and
    3. To stimulate discussion with others about the investment environment, the one thing I really missed about leaving the investment management business.

    Certainly, I accomplished my first two goals. The third goal, however, was elusive, probably because my writing was either too difficult to understand for the average person or not in-depth enough for professional investors.

    In any case, the time has come for me to wind down BearsEatBulls.com. This is not because I failed to achieve my third goal. The process of writing BearsEatBulls.com has

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