Payday Loans Now Bears Eat Bulls - Analysis of financial markets & the U.S. economy.
  • Current Conditions

  • Current Conditions

    Current Conditions

    The stock market is still very overvalued—the most overvalued since the bull market began in 2009. I would consider the stock market to be in Bubble territory at 50% overvalued. Investors should expect very low returns over the next 5-10 years.

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    Tobin's Q


    One of the major investment firms that does outstanding valuation work is Grantham Mayo (GMO). Below are their latest forecasts of seven-year returns for various asset classes.


    Investor sentiment is highly bullish, but might have rolled over.


    The stock market rose very rapidly following its most recent correction. The market’s action is becoming more bizarre. I think investors have become spectators, afraid to sell, while traders and speculators push prices around almost at will.

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    The economy is likely to continue its slow growth.




    The expected return from bonds is low, but better than for stocks.


    As investors “reach” for income in their portfolios, they have been taking on increasing

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  • Everything Has Its Time

     For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven- Ecclesiastes 3:1

    About three and one-half years ago, I began posting on In doing so,  I had three primary goals:

    1. To give my children some investment knowledge and wisdom,
    2. To force myself to into a discipline that would keep me abreast with markets and the economy, and
    3. To stimulate discussion with others about the investment environment, the one thing I really missed about leaving the investment management business.

    Certainly, I accomplished my first two goals. The third goal, however, was elusive, probably because my writing was either too difficult to understand for the average person or not in-depth enough for professional investors.

    In any case, the time has come for me to wind down This is not because I failed to achieve my third goal. The process of writing has

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