• Current Conditions

  • Current Conditions

    Current Conditions

    The stock market is still substantially overvalued (45%). Investors should expect VERY low returns over the next 5-10 years.

    image001 image002

    image001

    image001

    One of the major investment firms that does outstanding valuation work is Grantham Mayo (GMO). Below are their latest forecasts of seven-year returns for various asset classes.

    GMO_7YrForecasts_Feb15_page_1

    Investor sentiment is highly bullish, and is about at the same level as the peak of the Technology Bubble in 1999-2000. This level of bullishness indicates we are in a very high risk environment.

    image001

    The S&P 500 has once again dropped below its 50-day moving average price.

    image001 image002 image003

    The economy is likely to continue its slow growth.

    image002

    image002

    image004

    The expected return from bonds is low, but better than for stocks.

    image001

    As investors “reach” for income in their portfolios, they have been taking on increasing risk, as evidenced by the low yields and spreads in junk corporate bonds. However, junk bond yields have recently been rising, as

    Print Friendly
  • Payday Loans Now
  • More from Current Conditions
  • Recent Articles

  • Everything Has Its Time

     For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven- Ecclesiastes 3:1

    About three and one-half years ago, I began posting on BearsEatBull.com. In doing so,  I had three primary goals:

    1. To give my children some investment knowledge and wisdom,
    2. To force myself to into a discipline that would keep me abreast with markets and the economy, and
    3. To stimulate discussion with others about the investment environment, the one thing I really missed about leaving the investment management business.

    Certainly, I accomplished my first two goals. The third goal, however, was elusive, probably because my writing was either too difficult to understand for the average person or not in-depth enough for professional investors.

    In any case, the time has come for me to wind down BearsEatBulls.com. This is not because I failed to achieve my third goal. The process of writing BearsEatBulls.com has

    Print Friendly
  • Payday Loans Now